I. U.S. sanctions against Russia escalate and global energy trade reconstruction
1. Expanding the scope of sanctions
The United States announced a new round of sanctions on the Russian oil industry, freezing assets and prohibiting insurance services for more than 180 tankers, two core companies (Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas) and dozens of traders. This move directly affects about 25% of Russia's seaborne oil exports, exacerbating the risk of a break in the global energy trade chain.
2. Changes in Asia-Pacific trade flows
Major East Asian consumers (such as China, Japan and South Korea) are seeking to reduce their dependence on U.S. energy and increase crude oil imports from the Middle East and Russia, leading to an accelerated restructuring of the global energy supply chain.
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II. OPEC+ internal contradictions and market confidence crisis
1. Disputes over production cuts
Although OPEC+ announced an increase of 138,000 barrels per day in April, its multiple production cut extensions since 2023 have caused the market to doubt the execution of the production cut agreement. According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), non-OPEC countries (the United States and Brazil) have increased their daily supply by 1.6 million barrels, far exceeding the growth rate of demand, with a potential surplus of 950,000 barrels per day.
2. Differences in price targets
Saudi Arabia advocates supporting oil prices by reducing production, while the UAE and Russia tend to seize market share, and internal competition exacerbates market volatility. Technically, the price center of Brent crude oil may drop to the range of US$65-70 per barrel.
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III. Multi-dimensional impact of US tariff policy
1. Chain reaction of US-Canada trade frictions
The United States threatens to impose tariffs on Canadian crude oil, causing Canada to accelerate its development of the Asian market. If the policy is implemented, US refineries may face a shortage of heavy crude oil, pushing up local refining costs.
2. Disputes over biofuel policies
The United States plans to increase the biomass diesel blending quota to 5.5 billion to 5.75 billion gallons, but small refiners protest that it will increase costs and threaten jobs, and policy competition may indirectly affect crude oil demand.
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IV. Disruptive breakthroughs in clean energy technology
1. Acceleration of commercialization of hydrogen storage and transportation
China and the European Union recently announced plans to build hydrogen pipelines. It is expected that the global cost of green hydrogen will drop below $2/kg by 2030, which will suppress the share of oil in the transportation energy sector for a long time.
2. Transformation pressure on refining companies
Rongsheng Petrochemical and other companies have deployed hydrogen equipment through bulk transactions, and traditional energy giants are facing the difficult problem of balancing low-carbon technology investment and short-term profitability [[Historical dialogue data]].
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V. Geopolitical hotspots and short-term market sentiment
- The situation in the Red Sea is heating up again
The frequency of attacks on Red Sea tankers by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen has increased, but the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks has decreased, reflecting the strengthening of the dominant logic of supply and demand fundamentals.
- Abnormal changes in US inventory data
EIA data for the week of March 21 showed that US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels, but the strengthening of the US dollar offset the positive news, and oil prices showed a divergence of "inventory decline and price decline".