1. Domestic oil price trends
1. Domestic oil prices are expected to rise sharply
- On the sixth working day of the domestic oil price cycle, it is expected to rise by 185 yuan/ton, equivalent to an increase of 0.14-0.17 yuan/liter for gasoline and diesel, and will be adjusted at 24:00 on April 2.
- International oil price support factors: Declining US crude oil inventories and geopolitical risks (threat of Venezuelan crude oil import tariffs) pushed New York light crude oil to $69.65/barrel (+0.94%) and Brent crude oil to $73.79/barrel (+1.05%).
2. Refinery quotation adjustment
- Dongming Petrochemical raised the price of refined oil: 0# diesel rose by 20 yuan/ton to 6,840 yuan/ton, and 92# and 95# gasoline each rose by 10 yuan/ton.
II. International market dynamics
1. International crude oil supply and demand
- Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak predicts that global oil demand will increase by 1-1.5 million barrels per day in 2025.
- Finished oil inventories at the UAE port of Fujairah fell 11% to 19.383 million barrels.
2. Corporate stock price performance
- ConocoPhillips (COP): transaction volume of US$484 million, share price fell 0.37% to US$102.82; Morgan Stanley maintained an "overweight" rating with a target price of US$126.
- British Petroleum (BP): transaction volume of US$261 million, and the specific increase or decrease in share price was not disclosed.
III. Funding trends of domestic listed companies
- Taishan Petroleum (000554): net outflow of main funds was 7.5774 million yuan, closing down 2.21%.
- Tongyuan Petroleum (300164): net outflow of main funds was 9.1575 million yuan, closing down 1.8%.
- Zhongman Petroleum (603619): The main funds had a net outflow of 14.6882 million yuan, and the institution recently gave two "buy" ratings.
IV. Commodity prices
- Petroleum coke: The base price is 2407.50 yuan/ton, down 5.4% from the beginning of the month.
- Fuel oil 380CST: The base price is 474.50 US dollars/ton, down 5.85% from the beginning of the month.
V. Policies and industry trends
- Digital transformation of light industry: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments proposed to deepen the application of artificial intelligence in scenarios such as petroleum equipment manufacturing and smart homes.
- Fed rate hike expectations: Tariff policy may delay the Fed's rate cut plan and affect the risk preference of the global energy market