I. Forecast of international oil price trends
1. Triple logic drives oil price fluctuations
According to Deng Zhenghong's soft power oil price analysis model, international oil prices in April will revolve around "geopolitical risk-policy game-supply and demand imbalance". The daily supply increase of non-OPEC countries (such as the United States and Brazil) reached 1.6 million barrels, far exceeding the daily demand growth rate of 1.03 million barrels predicted by the International Energy Agency. The potential daily surplus in 2025 reached 950,000 barrels, and the contradiction between supply and demand intensified.
2. Risk of price center falling
In the long run, breakthroughs in clean energy technologies (such as hydrogen storage and transportation) will accelerate the weakening of crude oil demand, and it is expected that the oil price center may be suppressed to the range of US$65-70 per barrel. The technical support level faces the test of the psychological barrier of US$60 per barrel.
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II. Market fundamentals pressure
1. Double negative factors of inventory and US dollar
The continuous accumulation of commercial crude oil inventories in the United States, coupled with the hawkish policy of the Federal Reserve pushing the US dollar to strengthen, has formed a compound negative factor of "inventory pressure + currency depreciation", further suppressing the rebound momentum of oil prices.
2. Fluctuation of crude oil futures market
The dynamics of WTI crude oil futures prices on April 1 showed that the market continued to fluctuate. The specific opening and closing prices need to refer to real-time trading data (such as the official website of the New York Mercantile Exchange).
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III. Geopolitical and policy impact
- Geopolitical risk premium still exists
Potential conflicts such as the situation between Russia and Ukraine and the threat of US oil tariffs on Russia (historical dialogue data) may exacerbate short-term fluctuations, but the overall background of supply and demand imbalance has weakened the long-term impact of geopolitical events.
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IV. Long-term industry trends
- Clean energy impacts traditional demand
Technological breakthroughs in alternative energy such as hydrogen energy have accelerated the transformation of energy structure. The oil demand side is facing weakening pressure. The industry needs to cope with the challenge of balancing low-carbon transformation and capital investment.