I. International oil price trends and institutional forecasts
1. Goldman Sachs significantly lowers its oil price expectations
Goldman Sachs' latest report predicts that Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices will fall to $62/barrel and $58/barrel in December 2025, respectively, and further drop to $55/barrel and $51/barrel in December 2026. This forecast is based on the long-term logic of the intensification of supply and demand imbalances and the acceleration of clean energy substitution.
2. Crude oil inventory data changes
The latest data from the US API showed that US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.057 million barrels last week, which was in sharp contrast to the market's expectation of an increase of 2.6 million barrels. However, this short-term positive has failed to reverse the market's concerns about the contradiction between supply and demand.
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II. Enterprise production and project dynamics
1. Shell LNG production declines
Shell expects LNG production to be 6.4 million to 6.8 million tons in the first quarter of 2025, a significant decrease from 7.1 million tons in the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting weak global LNG market demand.
2. Progress of China's refining and chemical projects
The 2 million tons/year diesel adsorption separation unit of the Guangxi Petrochemical Refining and Chemical Integration Project has been completed and handed over. The project will enhance diesel deep processing capabilities and help upgrade the refining and chemical industry.
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III. Policy and market impact
1. Adjustment of US coal policy
Trump announced the restoration of the coal industry, plans to cut industry regulations and invest in next-generation coal technology. This move may indirectly affect oil demand, especially in the power sector to form energy substitution competition.
2. Butadiene price reduction
On April 9, Sinopec lowered the butadiene sales price by 500 yuan/ton to 10,700 yuan/ton, reflecting the pressure of shrinking demand in the midstream of the petrochemical industry chain.
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IV. Trade and geopolitical dynamics
- Brazil launches anti-dumping investigation
Brazil launched an anti-dumping investigation on PET resin from Malaysia and Vietnam, which may affect the trade flow of petrochemical products in Asia.
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V. Capital market changes
- Range Global Offshore Oil suspended
Range Global Offshore Oil (OFOS), a US-listed company, was suspended at 14:04 on April 9th, Eastern Time, due to abnormal fluctuations. Trading resumed 5 minutes later. The specific reasons for the fluctuations are yet to be disclosed.