I. The escalation of the Sino-US tariff game has impacted energy trade
1. China retaliates with additional tariffs
China announced that the tariff rate on all US imports will be increased to 84%, involving energy fields including coal, crude oil and liquefied natural gas. This move is a response to the United States' unilateral increase in tariffs on China to 125% on April 9, and the energy trade chain between the two countries is under further pressure].
2. Chain reaction of global trade frictions
The US's imposition of tariffs on many countries has led to increased expectations of a global economic recession, indirectly suppressing crude oil demand. The price of domestic biofuel raw materials such as palm oil fell by 1.5% to 1.9% in a single day, which may weaken the short-term profits of refining companies].
---
II. Related markets and capital trends
1. Abnormal movement of the cultured diamond sector
Power Diamond (301071) received a net inflow of 4.73 million yuan from the main funds on April 10, and the sector closed at 1086.08 points, a single-day increase of 2.90%]. Although not directly related to the oil industry, as an extension of the commodity sector, its capital flow reflects the market's risk aversion to energy assets.
2. Domestic refined oil price fluctuations
Affected by the continued decline in international oil prices, the domestic gasoline and diesel price adjustment window is approaching. The price adjustment on April 17 may continue the downward trend, but the specific data needs to be officially announced].
---
III. International policy and economic forecast
1. The Fed's policy affects oil prices
Market analysis believes that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged, and the impact of the US dollar index fluctuations on crude oil prices will weaken, but "inventory pressure + weak demand" still dominates the downward logic of oil prices].
2. Recession risk warning
Economists warn that the US economy may fall into recession. If the tariff dispute continues, it may lead to a reduction of about 2 million barrels per day in global crude oil demand].
---
IV. Industry dynamics and risk warnings
- Refining companies face increasing pressure
The US-China tariff policy directly affects the cost of energy imports and exports. Refining companies need to cope with the dual pressures of rising raw material prices and shrinking demand for refined oil].
- Weakening of geopolitical risk premium
Despite the continued geopolitical events such as the Red Sea situation, the market's sensitivity to supply disruptions has decreased, reflecting that the contradiction between supply and demand fundamentals (such as OPEC+ production increase) is still the core influencing factor].