I. International oil prices continue to be under pressure
1. WTI and Brent crude oil prices fluctuate
On April 11, data from the New York Mercantile Exchange showed that the opening price and yesterday's closing price of WTI crude oil futures (delivery in May) continued to decline. The specific values need to refer to real-time trading data. Technically, international oil prices are still facing the test of the psychological barrier of $60 per barrel. The imbalance between supply and demand and the strengthening of the US dollar are the main sources of pressure.
2. The contradiction between supply and demand intensifies
The daily supply increase of non-OPEC countries (such as the United States and Brazil) reached 1.6 million barrels, far exceeding the daily demand growth rate of 1.03 million barrels predicted by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The potential daily surplus in 2025 may reach 950,000 barrels, and the market's concerns about oversupply continue to ferment.
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II. The Sino-US tariff game escalates
1. China retaliates with additional tariffs
China announced a 34% tariff on crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other energy products originating from the United States as a countermeasure to the United States' previous 125% tariff. This move directly impacts the Sino-US energy trade chain and may accelerate China's energy imports to Russia, the Middle East and other regions.
2. Risk of restructuring the global trade chain
Asian consumer countries such as China, Japan and South Korea are adjusting their energy import structure, reducing their dependence on the United States and increasing imports of Russian crude oil. The new round of US sanctions (such as freezing Russian tanker assets) has exacerbated the instability of the global energy supply chain.
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III. China's market dynamics
1. Domestic refined oil price fluctuations
On April 11, the wholesale price of No. 0 diesel in many places across the country was about 7.48~8.13 yuan/liter (Beijing, Tianjin and other places), and the retail price of gasoline was generally in the range of 7.45~8.60 yuan/liter. Shandong local refineries are facing cost pressure due to the decline in international oil prices, and some refineries have lowered the ex-factory prices of gasoline and diesel.
2. Abnormal changes in the centralized procurement prices in Northeast China
The transaction price of the second batch of gasoline and diesel centralized procurement by Sinopec in Northeast China in April rose, with gasoline reaching 7,950 yuan/ton (+230 yuan/ton compared with the previous time), reflecting the combined impact of regional supply and demand contradictions and policy regulation.
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IV. Policy and industry trends
1. Deepening of internal game of OPEC+
The OPEC+ production increase plan (410,000 barrels per day in April) has exacerbated the differences among member countries. The strategic contradiction between Saudi Arabia and the UAE between "maintaining prices" and "grabbing market share" has become public, and the market has doubts about the execution of the production reduction agreement.
2. Impact of clean energy technology
The commercialization process of hydrogen storage and transportation has accelerated. The hydrogen pipeline construction plan between China and the European Union is expected to reduce the cost of green hydrogen to below US$2/kg by 2030, which will weaken the share of oil in the transportation and energy sector in the long term.
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V. Enterprise capital operation
- Accelerated transformation of refining and chemical enterprises
Rongsheng Petrochemical and other enterprises have deployed hydrogen energy equipment through bulk transaction financing, and traditional energy giants are facing the challenge of balancing low-carbon technology investment and short-term profits.