I. International oil prices continue to fall
1. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices fell
On April 14, international oil prices continued their recent decline. WTI crude oil futures prices fell to $60.07/barrel during the session, and Brent crude oil futures prices fell to $63.33/barrel, mainly affected by supply and demand imbalances, a stronger dollar and concerns about US tariff policies.
2. Market fundamentals are under pressure
The accumulation of US commercial crude oil inventories, OPEC+ production increase plans and clean energy technology shocks continue to put pressure on oil prices. Ping An Securities analysis pointed out that OPEC+ has increased its daily production by 138,000 barrels since April, and combined with the increase in supply from non-OPEC countries, the potential daily surplus of crude oil in 2025 may reach 950,000 barrels.
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II. Domestic market dynamics
1. Expected price reduction of refined oil products
Domestic refined oil wholesale prices are affected by international oil prices, and the cumulative decline of Shandong local refinery gasoline has reached 200-300 yuan/ton. The refined oil price adjustment window may be opened on April 17, and the price of gasoline and diesel is expected to drop by about 150 yuan per ton.
2. The benchmark price of petroleum coke has risen slightly
On April 14, the benchmark price of petroleum coke of Sinochem was 2412.50 yuan/ton, up 1.05% from the beginning of the month, reflecting the phased adjustment of supply and demand in the market of refining by-products.
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III. Capital market performance
1. The oil sector rose against the trend
On April 14, the A-share oil industry sector index reported 5247.177 points, an increase of 3%. In terms of individual stocks, Compton hit the daily limit (+10.02%), Bohui shares (+6.06%), Taishan Petroleum (+5.36%) and others followed the rise.
2. Heshun Petroleum's net outflow of funds
On that day, Heshun Petroleum's main funds had a net outflow of 14.958 million yuan, and retail funds had a net inflow of 18.2013 million yuan. The stock price closed at 14.94 yuan (+2.61%). The company's main business is gas station chain operation and finished oil storage. The third quarter report shows that revenue fell 27.17% year-on-year.
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IV. Policy and industry trends
1. Acceleration of renewable energy substitution
The "Guiding Opinions on Vigorously Implementing Renewable Energy Substitution Actions" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and other six ministries and commissions proposed to strengthen the construction of hydrogen refueling stations and support the pilot application of bio-jet fuel. Domestic refining and chemical companies such as Rongsheng Petrochemical are deploying hydrogen energy equipment through capital operations.
2. Strengthening industry standards and supervision
The new national standard "Motor Vehicle Fuel Dispenser" has been officially implemented, requiring core components to be bound to a unique ID to improve the safety management level of refueling dispensers.
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V. Geopolitics and long-term risks
- US sanctions and trade frictions
The new US sanctions on Russia's oil transportation network involve more than 180 tankers, resulting in a 25% drop in Russia's seaborne exports. China, Japan and South Korea are accelerating the adjustment of their energy import structure, turning to Middle Eastern and Russian crude oil.