I. International oil prices and market fundamentals
1. Supply and demand contradictions continue to exert pressure
The production increase plan implemented by OPEC+ since April continues to ferment, and the daily supply increase of non-OPEC countries (the United States and Brazil) has reached 1.6 million barrels, far exceeding the 1.03 million barrels of daily demand growth predicted by the International Energy Agency. The potential daily surplus in 2025 will reach 950,000 barrels, and the central oil price will be under pressure to fall to the range of US$65-70 per barrel.
2. Biofuel policy indirectly affects crude oil demand
The policy controversy over the increase in the US biomass diesel blending quota to 5.5 billion to 5.75 billion gallons continues, which may boost soybean oil prices and squeeze crude oil demand. At the same time, the EU's simplification of the anti-deforestation law compliance process may stimulate the recovery of Brazilian soybean and Indonesian palm oil exports, indirectly affecting the competitive landscape of biodiesel and crude oil.
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II. Policy and geopolitical dynamics
1. China's Coast Guard strengthens the protection of rights and interests in the South China Sea
China's Coast Guard regulates fishing operations in the waters of Huangyan Island by boarding and inspecting fishing boats. This action may involve the protection of rights and interests in the exploration of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea, and has a potential impact on regional energy development.
2. The follow-up effect of the escalation of US sanctions on Russia
The new US sanctions on Russia's oil transportation network have caused Russia's seaborne exports to drop by about 25%. Asian countries such as China, Japan and South Korea have accelerated the adjustment of their import structure and turned to Middle Eastern crude oil, further restructuring the global energy trade chain.
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III. Industry transformation and technological breakthroughs
1. Deepening of low-carbon transformation policies
The Energy Law of the People's Republic of China was officially implemented, which clearly requires the oil industry to optimize the processing and conversion layout and promote the application of renewable energy hydrogen production technology. Sinopec, PetroChina and other companies have accelerated the layout of the hydrogen energy industry chain. For example, PetroChina Daqing Oilfield has built the first 10,000-acre zero-carbon ecological park.
2. Energy efficiency improvement in the refining industry
According to the "Special Action Plan for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in the Refining Industry", the national refining capacity is controlled within 1 billion tons, and the atmospheric and vacuum units below 2 million tons/year are eliminated, and the energy efficiency benchmark capacity is promoted to account for more than 30%.
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IV. Corporate trends and capital markets
- Active capital operations of refining companies
Rongsheng Petrochemical and other companies have deployed low-carbon technologies through bulk transaction financing, and the market is paying attention to the investment progress of traditional energy giants in hydrogen energy equipment and CCUS (carbon capture, utilization and storage).
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V. Risk warning and long-term trends
- Acceleration of clean energy substitution
The commercialization process of hydrogen energy storage and transportation technology is accelerating, and it is expected that the cost of green hydrogen will drop to less than US$2/kg in 2030, which will suppress the share of oil in the transportation energy field for a long time.
- Decreased sensitivity to geopolitical conflicts
Despite the frequent attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea, the market's pricing of geopolitical risks has weakened, reflecting the strengthening of the dominant logic of supply and demand fundamentals.