I. Technical rebound in international oil prices
1. WTI and Brent crude oil stopped falling and rebounded
On April 15, international oil prices ended a three-day plunge. WTI crude oil futures (May delivery) rose 2.3% to US$62.18/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures (June delivery) rose 1.8% to US$65.05/barrel. The market believes that this is a technical rebound after oversold, but the supply and demand fundamentals have not improved substantially.
2. Short-term positive factors
- US crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell: API data showed that inventories fell by 1.057 million barrels last week, in contrast to the expected increase;
- The US dollar index fell: The US dollar index fell to 101.2, easing the pressure on crude oil denominated in US dollars;
- The risk of shipping in the Red Sea has increased: the frequency of Houthi armed attacks has increased, and the geo-premium has returned briefly
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II. Focus of policy and market competition
1. Strategic differences within OPEC+
Saudi Arabia's energy minister expressed his willingness to sacrifice short-term market share to stabilize oil prices, while Russia hinted that it would give priority to supplying Asian customers. The contradiction between "guaranteeing price" and "guaranteeing volume" among member countries has become public. The market is worried that the OPEC+ production cut agreement may be loosened ahead of schedule.
2. Chain reaction of China-US tariffs
- China's energy import shift: In the first two weeks of April, Russia's crude oil exports to China surged 28% year-on-year, with the Middle East accounting for 52%;
- Rising U.S. refinery costs: China's counter-tariffs have increased the cost of importing heavy crude oil from the United States, and some refineries have reduced their operating rates.
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III. Domestic market dynamics
1. The window for refined oil price adjustment is approaching
On April 17, domestic refined oil prices may see the third reduction this year, with gasoline and diesel expected to drop by about 150 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 0.11-0.13 yuan per liter. The ex-factory price of gasoline in Shandong local refineries has fallen by 300 yuan/ton, and the profit of refining has been compressed to the break-even line.
2. Hydrogen energy industry accelerates layout
PetroChina announced the launch of the world's largest green hydrogen coupled refining project in Xinjiang, using wind and solar power generation to produce hydrogen, with an annual output of 100,000 tons of green hydrogen, and it is expected to achieve a 15% hydrogen energy substitution rate in the refining field by 2030.
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IV. Capital market changes
- The oil sector is obviously differentiated
The A-share oil industry index rose slightly by 0.3%, but the performance of individual stocks was polarized:
- Compton's daily limit: Due to a surge in orders for hydrogen energy equipment, the stock price rose by 10.02% in a single day;
- Heshun Petroleum fell by 3.2%: Affected by the expectation of price cuts for refined oil products, the net outflow of retail funds exceeded 20 million yuan.
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V. Long-term risks and industry transformation
1. Clean energy substitution is irreversible
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil demand in the transportation sector will drop by 12% in 2030 compared with 2025, and alternative technologies such as hydrogen energy and biofuel will accelerate commercialization. Giants such as Shell and BP have cut their upstream investment budgets for the next five years.
2. Accelerated integration of the refining industry
Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical and other leading companies have raised more than 5 billion yuan through block transactions, and funds have flowed to low-carbon refining technology upgrades and overseas asset acquisitions.