I. Domestic refined oil prices have dropped significantly
1. The largest drop in the year has been implemented
From 24:00 on April 17, domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products) were reduced by 480 yuan and 465 yuan per ton, respectively, equivalent to retail prices: No. 92 gasoline decreased by 0.38 yuan per liter, No. 95 gasoline decreased by 0.40 yuan, and No. 0 diesel decreased by 0.40 yuan. After adjustments in Beijing, Shanghai and other places, the price range of No. 92 gasoline was 7.04-7.16 yuan/liter, and No. 0 diesel was 6.52-6.85 yuan/liter.
2. Driven by market supply and demand contradictions
This price adjustment was mainly affected by the plunge in international oil prices. On April 17, WTI crude oil once fell below US$60/barrel, hitting a new low since 2021. Domestic refinery inventory pressure increased, and the wholesale price of refined oil products of Shandong local refineries fell by 200-300 yuan/ton.
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II. International oil prices and market dynamics
1. Geopolitical game escalation
The new US sanctions on Russia's oil transportation network involved more than 180 tankers, resulting in a 25% drop in Russia's seaborne exports. At the same time, China imposed a 34% tariff on US coal, crude oil and liquefied natural gas, further pressuring the Sino-US energy trade chain.
2. OPEC+ production increase and weak demand
OPEC+ has increased its daily production by 410,000 barrels since April. Combined with the increase in production in non-OPEC countries such as the United States and Brazil, the global daily surplus of crude oil may reach 950,000 barrels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its demand forecast for 2025 to 103.9 million barrels/day, exacerbating the imbalance between market supply and demand.
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III. Corporate dynamics and capital markets
1. Oil stocks perform differently
After-hours data on April 17 showed that Sinopec Oilfield Services (600871) rose slightly by 0.56%, but the cumulative decline since the beginning of the year reached 11.27%; Zhongman Petroleum (603619) was dragged down by international oil prices, and its net profit in the first quarter fell by 284.55% year-on-year.
2. Biofuel policy controversy
The United States plans to increase the biomass diesel blending quota to 5.5 billion-5.75 billion gallons, but small refiners oppose it, saying it will push up costs. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase to a record 108.5 million tons, indirectly affecting crude oil demand.
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IV. Policies and industry trends
1. Acceleration of low-carbon transformation
The commercialization process of hydrogen storage and transportation technology is accelerating, and it is expected that the cost of green hydrogen will drop to less than US$2/kg in 2030. Rongsheng Petrochemical and other companies have deployed hydrogen energy equipment through bulk transactions, and traditional energy giants are facing transformation pressure.
2. Strengthening market supervision
China's State Administration for Market Regulation has carried out advertising order rectification, strictly investigated "miracle doctors", "miracle drugs" and false energy propaganda, and required refined oil companies to strictly implement price adjustment policies.
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V. International situation and short-term risks
- Red Sea shipping risks
The frequency of Houthi armed attacks in Yemen has increased, but the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks has decreased, and supply and demand fundamentals dominate the logic of oil prices.
- Impact of Fed policies
The volatility of the US dollar index and the hawkish expectations of the Fed continue to put pressure on oil prices, forming a compound negative of "inventory accumulation + currency depreciation".