I. International oil prices bottomed out and rebounded
1. Technical correction and geopolitical premium rebound
WTI crude oil futures rose 1.8% to $63.5/barrel, and Brent crude oil rose 1.5% to $67.2/barrel, ending a week of decline. Trigger factors include:
- The frequency of attacks on Red Sea tankers by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen has increased, and the market is worried about the risk of short-term supply disruptions;
- The US API crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased by 2.2 million barrels (expected to increase by 1.5 million barrels);
- The US dollar index fell back to 101.3, easing the pressure on commodity prices.
2. Institutional views diverge
Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of "Brent crude oil center of $70/barrel in 2025", but Morgan Stanley warns that if OPEC+ abandons production cuts, oil prices may fall to the $50 range.
---
II. Policy and geopolitical hotspots
1. EU's new sanctions against Russia have been implemented
The EU announced a ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) and restricted European companies from providing insurance services for Russian oil transportation, which is expected to affect 15% of Russia's energy export revenue. Russia responded by saying it would expand crude oil supplies to India and Turkey.
2. Controversy over US biofuel policy escalates
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) plans to increase the amount of biodiesel blended to 5.75 billion gallons in 2025, but refiners jointly protested, saying that this move will lead to a 20%-30% increase in costs for small and medium-sized refineries.
---
III. China's market dynamics
1. The wholesale price of refined oil stabilized
The ex-factory price of gasoline in Shandong local refineries rebounded to 7,850 yuan/ton (+150 yuan/ton), mainly due to the supply contraction caused by the arrival of the refinery maintenance season. After the price adjustment on April 17, domestic gas stations increased their promotion efforts, and the actual retail price of No. 92 gasoline was as low as 7.1 yuan/liter.
2. Hydrogen energy projects are accelerating
PetroChina announced the launch of the second phase of the world's largest wind and solar green hydrogen project in Kuche, Xinjiang, with an estimated annual production of 300,000 tons of green hydrogen and a 20% hydrogen energy replacement in the refining and chemical industry by 2030.
---
IV. Enterprise capital operation and technological breakthroughs
1. Saudi Aramco acquires a stake in a Chinese refining and chemical company
Saudi Aramco acquired a 10% stake in Rongsheng Petrochemical for RMB 24.6 billion. The two parties will cooperate to build a 20 million ton/year low-carbon refining and chemical base in Zhoushan, focusing on aviation kerosene and new chemical materials.
2. CCUS technology commercialization breakthrough
CNOOC announced the realization of million-ton carbon dioxide storage in the South China Sea oil field, and the capture cost was reduced to US$35/ton, providing a new path for the low-carbon transformation of traditional oil and gas fields.
---
V. Industry risks and long-term trends
- Accelerating demand shrinkage in the transportation sector
The International Energy Agency (IEA) report shows that the global electric vehicle ownership will reach 350 million in 2025, replacing crude oil demand of about 4 million barrels per day, an increase of 25% from 2024.
- Intensified integration of refining and chemical production capacity
China plans to eliminate 120 million tons of backward refining capacity within three years, pushing the industry concentration to 75%, and small and medium-sized local refining companies are facing merger and reorganization pressure.
---
Summary and strategic recommendations
The current market presents a "weak balance" feature: short-term geopolitical risks and inventory changes support the rebound, but the long-term supply and demand contradictions are unresolved. Recommended attention:
1. Geo-sensitive targets: COSL (Red Sea shipping security), Sinopec (Middle East project);
2. Transformation pioneers: Rongsheng Petrochemical (Saudi Arabia cooperation), PetroChina (green hydrogen project);
3. Risk avoidance: Be wary of OPEC+ policy shifts and expectations of a renewed interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
For real-time data, it is recommended to refer to Reuters Energy Channel or the National Energy Administration's daily briefing.