I. International oil prices fluctuated and closed down
1. Market sentiment fluctuated
WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.2% to $62.8/barrel, and Brent crude oil fell 0.9% to $66.5/barrel, giving up the gains of the previous trading day. The main reasons include:
- US inventory data is bearish: EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.8 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.5 million barrels);
- US dollar strengthened: Federal Reserve officials hinted that interest rates may rise by another 25 basis points this year, and the US dollar index rebounded to 101.8;
- Geopolitical premium faded: Houthi armed forces suspended the Red Sea attack, and market concerns about supply disruptions eased.
2. Institutional views diverge
Morgan Stanley warned that if OPEC+ abandons production cuts, Brent crude oil may fall to $55/barrel; but the Saudi Ministry of Energy said that "it will flexibly adjust production to stabilize the market", suggesting that it may intervene in prices.
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II. Policies and geopolitical hotspots
1. New restrictions on US oil exports to Iran
The US Treasury Department announced sanctions on six shipping companies and 12 tankers involved in Iranian oil transportation, restricting them from using US dollars for settlement. Iran responded that it had "avoided the impact through RMB settlement", and China and India's imports did not decline significantly.
2. EU carbon tariffs hit the refining industry
The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has been extended to petrochemical products, and a carbon tax of 45 euros per ton will be imposed on imported polyethylene, aromatics, etc. from 2025. Sinopec, Hengli Petrochemical and other companies are accelerating the layout of local production capacity in Europe.
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III. Corporate strategy and technological breakthroughs
1. Saudi Aramco increases investment in Asia
Saudi Aramco and India's Reliance Industries signed an agreement to jointly build a 20 million tons/year refining and chemical integration project on the west coast of India, with an annual production capacity of 2 million tons of blue hydrogen, with a total investment of US$50 billion.
2. CNOOC’s deep-sea exploration breakthrough
The second phase of the “Deep Sea No. 1” ultra-deepwater gas field was put into production, adding an annual gas supply of 3 billion cubic meters, and the first domestic offshore carbon dioxide storage device was built, with an annual storage capacity of 500,000 tons.
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IV. China Market Dynamics
1. Crackdown on refined oil smuggling has been upgraded
The General Administration of Customs of China launched the “National Sword 2025” operation, focusing on cracking down on refined oil smuggling along the coast of Guangdong and Fujian, and seized 120,000 tons of oil products involved in the case, with a case value of more than 800 million yuan.
2. Hydrogen energy transportation application landing
The first batch of 200 hydrogen heavy trucks in Shanghai were put into operation in the Lingang Logistics Park, and 3 hydrogen refueling stations were built. The retail price of hydrogen dropped to 25 yuan/kg (after subsidies), a 40% decrease from 2024.
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V. Industry risks and long-term trends
- Accelerating low-carbon transformation of the aviation industry
According to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the global use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will exceed 5% in 2025, replacing crude oil demand by about 800,000 barrels per day.
- Accelerating the elimination of refining capacity
The National Development and Reform Commission of China has clearly stated that 50 million tons of refining capacity will be eliminated by 2025, with a focus on shutting down small-scale, low-efficiency independent refineries, and the concentration of the local refining industry will increase to 70%.